Tropical Storm Melissa, located in the Caribbean, may become a hurricane by Thursday, October 23, 2025, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Positioned about 490 km south-southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, the storm has sustained winds of 80 km/h and is expected to bring heavy rainfall to Hispaniola and Jamaica. The NHC forecasts 12 to 25 cm of rain in the region through Saturday, with risks of flooding and landslides. The storm’s path indicates a northwest movement, nearing Jamaica and southwestern Haiti.
The forecast predicts a slowdown in Melissa’s forward speed, with a gradual turn to the north-northwest in the coming days. Local authorities are on alert, and residents are advised to prepare evacuation plans. The storm may also generate swells affecting the coasts of Cuba and Aruba.
- Recommended measures include reinforcing homes and reviewing flood insurance.
- Emergency supply kits should be prepared in advance.
- Family communication plans are essential for safety.
Alert for heavy rainfall
The NHC estimates that southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica will receive 12 to 25 cm of rain by October 25. Localized areas may see even higher amounts, increasing the risk of flash flooding.
Landslides are a concern, particularly in mountainous regions of Hispaniola. Local authorities have heightened alerts for residents.
Preparations in affected areas
Governments in Jamaica and Haiti are mobilizing emergency teams. Evacuation plans are being reviewed for vulnerable areas.
Residents are advised to reinforce windows, trim trees, and secure essential supplies.
Expected impacts in other regions
Northern Haiti and Dominican Republic are expected to see 5 to 10 cm of rain. Puerto Rico and Aruba may receive 2 to 7 cm of rain through Saturday. Swells from the storm could reach eastern Cuba’s coast. Maritime conditions are expected to worsen, impacting navigation in the region.
Context of the hurricane season
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has already seen Hurricane Gabrielle, active east of Bermuda, and Tropical Storm Andrea in June. Melissa is being monitored alongside two other systems in the tropical Atlantic, indicating an active season. Warm ocean conditions, with temperatures above 27°C, favor storm formation. The NHC uses forecast models to track the storm’s path and intensity but warns that the storm’s center may deviate up to 33% from the predicted track.
Recommendations for residents
Authorities emphasize the importance of preventive measures. A well-defined evacuation plan is critical for at-risk areas. Flood insurance, which requires a 30-day waiting period, should be checked in advance. Stockpiling food, water, and medical supplies is recommended to handle potential disruptions.
Meteorological monitoring
The NHC updates advisories every six hours, based on satellite data and weather models. Melissa is expected to strengthen gradually, but its intensification depends on factors like ocean temperature and upper-level winds. Caribbean residents are urged to follow official alerts and avoid unnecessary travel during the heavy rain period.