Flávio Bolsonaro’s 2024 Northeast pre-campaign: a strategic review for 2025 electoral dynamics

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) embarked on his initial pre-campaign tour through Brazil’s Northeast in 2024, commencing his engagements in Natal, the capital of Rio Grande do Norte. This strategic move aimed to diminish the significant electoral advantage historically held by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the region, an area traditionally less receptive to the Bolsonaro movement.

Following his visit to Natal, the presidential pre-candidate continued his itinerary to João Pessoa, the capital of Paraíba, on the subsequent day. These early maneuvers by Flávio Bolsonaro are now seen as foundational efforts, providing valuable insights into the broader political landscape and the strategies that continue to evolve for the 2025 election cycle, particularly regarding the crucial Northeastern vote.

The primary objective of Flávio Bolsonaro’s team during these tours was to solidify his presence and appeal among Northeastern voters. This intensive effort sought to reduce what is often referred to as Lula’s “cushion of votes” – a substantial lead the PT leader consistently secures in these states, which proved decisive in past elections.

Challenging Lula’s Regional Dominance

During the second round of the 2022 elections, Lula secured a commanding 69.34% of the valid votes in the Northeast, starkly contrasting with Jair Bolsonaro’s 30.66%. This outcome underscored the Northeast as the sole Brazilian region where the Workers’ Party candidate maintained a significant advantage over the then-incumbent, highlighting the strategic importance of this area for any aspiring national candidate in 2025.

The choice of Rio Grande do Norte for the initial stop was largely influenced by Senator Rogério Marinho (PL), who serves as Flávio Bolsonaro’s national campaign coordinator. Marinho’s deep roots and political influence in his home state are leveraged to build local support and establish a stronger presence for the Bolsonarist agenda in the region.

“Marinho has been like a father to me on this political journey; thank you very much,” Flávio stated at the event, emphasizing the importance of his coordinator’s guidance. Marinho’s experience as Minister of Regional Development and Special Secretary for Social Security and Labor during Jair Bolsonaro’s administration further solidifies his role as a key strategist.

Strategic Alliance and Localized Messaging

Flávio Bolsonaro’s pre-campaign in the Northeast has also strategically engaged other former ministers from his father’s administration as central articulators. Notably, former Health Minister Marcelo Queiroga has been active in Paraíba, while former Citizenship Minister João Roma is a key figure in Bahia, aiming to build strong regional platforms for 2025.

The campaign’s current approach focuses on tailoring messages and actions specifically to the Northeast, moving beyond a reliance on political figures primarily from the Central-West, Southeast, and South. This personalized strategy includes arguing that social programs, such as Bolsa Família, are not exclusively dependent on Lula’s leadership for their effective operation, a critical point for voters in the region.

Furthermore, actions taken by Jair Bolsonaro related to the São Francisco River transposition project were highlighted during the Natal event. These infrastructure achievements are positioned as concrete benefits delivered to the Northeast, aiming to counteract narratives that attribute all social and economic progress solely to the Workers’ Party.

Rhetoric and Moderation in a Divided Landscape

The events featured sharp criticisms leveled against Lula, punctuated by chants like “no more bread and bologna” and a campaign song with lyrics suggesting, “Lula will leave because Flávio will command.” This aggressive rhetoric underscores the polarized nature of Brazilian politics, which is anticipated to intensify in 2025.

Flávio Bolsonaro framed the upcoming electoral cycle not as a contest between Lula and Bolsonaro, but as a fundamental choice for Brazil’s direction over the next five decades. He articulated a vision emphasizing law and order, advocating for criminals to remain imprisoned and condemning violence against women, contrasting this with perceived leniency towards crime.

“All of us here have this path to offer: the path of freedom. On the other side, the path of those who release criminals, who think it’s normal for minors to steal your cell phone for a beer,” Flávio asserted. He further criticized a government he claimed was unwilling to confront major criminal organizations, suggesting that prisons celebrated Lula’s presidential announcement.

The pre-candidate also addressed economic concerns, criticizing the increase in diesel prices attributed to the conflict in the Middle East. He noted the price surge to R$10, highlighting that these issues arose in the absence of a pandemic, attempting to link current economic hardships directly to the current administration.

Forging Alliances and State Platforms

The Natal event’s stage was crowded with mayors, parliamentarians, and various allies, all affirming their commitment to the campaign’s goals. Speeches from these allies, such as calls to “end this PT rule, with the misery that the Lula government implanted everywhere,” echoed the core anti-PT sentiment of the movement.

While Flávio stressed his intention to continue Jair Bolsonaro’s work, he has also cultivated an image as a more moderate politician in his speeches, particularly appealing to centrist voters. This nuanced positioning is crucial for attracting those who reject Lula but are also wary of a more radical right-wing stance, a key strategic shift for 2025.

The strategy includes drawing politicians from centrist parties into the PL fold, exemplified by Senator Efraim Filho (União Brasil) in Paraíba, who aims to run for state governor under the PL banner. These alliances are vital for building competitive state-level platforms in future elections.

PL events across Brazil also serve to affiliate new allies and announce state-level candidacies. Valdemar da Costa Neto, the national president of the PL, accompanied Flávio during the weekend. Costa Neto, in a brief address in Natal, emphasized the importance of strong state platforms, praising Rogério Marinho’s work and highlighting candidates for the Rio Grande do Norte ticket.

The PL’s gubernatorial candidate for Rio Grande do Norte is Álvaro Dias, the former mayor of Natal, who transitioned from the Republicanos party to the Bolsonaro family’s party. The state platform further includes Senator Styvenson Valentim (PSDB), seeking re-election, and Colonel Hélio, the PL’s Natal director, who also intends to run for the Senate.

Bolsonaro’s Legacy and Family Endeavors

Candidates for federal deputy supported by the PL were also announced, showcasing the party’s comprehensive strategy to expand its legislative presence. Flávio Bolsonaro’s arrival in Natal was met by supporters at the airport, underscoring the enthusiasm for the pre-campaign efforts.

These events are part of a broader series of agendas organized by the PL nationwide, with Flávio having previously participated in a party event in Ji-Paraná, Rondônia. Before his Natal visit, the politician had been in Brasília to visit his father, Jair Bolsonaro, in the hospital, where he celebrated his birthday with family.

During the Natal event, Flávio and other participants also sang “Happy Birthday” to Jair Bolsonaro, complete with a cake, reinforcing the family’s political bond. “Earlier, I was with him. He is getting better and asked me to come here to say he misses being here very much, where I am now. It is a great responsibility to be present when he should be here,” Flávio shared, connecting his personal mission to his father’s legacy.

In a related development, Flávio had met with Justice Alexandre de Moraes of the Supreme Federal Court during the week, seeking to secure house arrest for the former president. On the preceding Friday, Flávio was in Rio de Janeiro, highlighting a dynamic schedule that blends political campaigning with family matters and legal advocacy, all contributing to the shaping of the 2025 political landscape.