Summer 2026 forecast warns of more fires, tornadoes and intense heat in the United States By Beatriz
3 min read
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AccuWeather released the forecast for summer 2026 in Estados Unidos. The period should record temperatures above the historical average in most of the territory. The development of an El Niño, which can harden to a super version, is the main driver behind the standard.
Meteorologistas monitor the heating of Pacífico’s waters. Esse phenomenon alters atmospheric circulation patterns and favors persistent heat. The west and northwest are home to the most worrying conditions.
The map shows a predominance of heat above normal
The forecast indicates that almost no state in the contiguous 48 should have cold temperatures compared to history. The American West, including Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, faces a combination of heat waves and prolonged drought. Brandon Buckingham, AccuWeather meteorologist, assesses that wildfires in Grande Bacia could reach destructive levels.
- Idaho, Oregon and Washington record high risk of drought and fire
- Grande Bacia has potential for large fires
- Regiões from the northwest must maintain constant vigilance
No Nordeste, cities such as Nova York, Chicago and Filadélfia are preparing for a late heat wave associated with increased humidity. Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather’s long-term forecast specialist, indicates that the thermal sensation will be high during the day and the nights will also be warm.
The heat is not limited to the coast. Meio-Oeste and Grandes Planícies are expected to register June and July that are warmer than usual.
Severe Tempestades gains strength in Meio-Oeste
The number of tornadoes is expected to be near or above average in June and July. Pastelok notes that activity may decrease in August but be replaced by derechos. Esses strong wind systems, compared to land-based hurricanes, reach 100 mph and cause extensive damage.
Sul and Leste also face risk from storms. Frentes brutal cold weather can bring tornadoes and windstorms throughout the summer. The transition to El Niño changes the energy distribution in the atmosphere and favors these events.
Texas and Sudoeste alternate between floods and drought
The Hill Country region, in Texas, is still recovering from floods that cost US$22 billion in 2025. Agora, the forecast indicates a greater frequency of flash floods this summer. Pastelok warns of the risk of flash floods.
The North American monsoon is expected to arrive in early June. Ela helps fill reservoirs like Lago Mead, but can also bring dry lightning that starts fires. The southwest alternates between periods of lots of rain and little useful precipitation.
El Niño explains the chaotic weather pattern
The strengthening of El Niño into Pacífico is primarily responsible. Ele is expected to intensify throughout the year and influence the climate until the end of 2026. The phenomenon reduces the risk of hurricanes in Atlântico, but increases the volume of heat, drought and storms in other regions.
Especialistas track ocean models. Há chance of the event becoming an Super El Niño, which would magnify the effects. NOAA and other forecasting centers indicate a high probability of El Niño establishing itself between April and June.
Preparação is essential to face the summer
Autoridades recommend that the population check air conditioning equipment and water supplies. Fire and storm emergency Planos should be reviewed. The increase in energy consumption is expected to put pressure on the electrical grid in several regions.
Estados from the west are already intensifying preventive measures against fires. No Texas, the focus is on watersheds and flood warnings. Summer officially begins on June 21st, but the effects of the weather pattern appear in April and May.
