ESPN’s Football Power Index has Los Angeles Rams as the main favorite to beat Super Bowl LXI. The projection came out this Wednesday and indicates a 14.9% chance for the Califórnia team. Os Buffalo Bills appears in second with 10.7%.
Os Seahawks and Patriots competed in Super Bowl LX almost four months ago. Mesmo therefore, the FPI does not see them as the two best teams for 2026. Seattle appears in fourth place overall. New England only appears in 14th position.
Rams gains favoritism with stable attack and reinforcement of Garrett
The model highlights that the attack is usually more predictable from one season to the next than the defense. Los Angeles Rams advanced last season mainly on the offensive side.
Mesmo with some expected regression, the projected drop for the Rams attack is smaller than that predicted for the Seahawks defense. Los Angeles also reinforced the cast. On Monday, the team traded and signed edge rusher Myles Garrett, formerly of Cleveland Browns.
The team had already added cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson this offseason. Essas changes help address a long-standing weakness in the defense. With the new roster, the FPI calculates a 14.9% chance of winning the title for Rams. The number exceeds the chance of Bills by more than four percentage points.
NFC West concentrates unprecedented strength at the top of the ranking
Três NFC teams West appear in the top five in the initial FPI. Esse concentration level has not occurred since 2022 in another division.
Os Rams leads with a 46% chance of winning the division. Os Seahawks have 27.8%. Os San Francisco 49ers have 26.1%. Arizona Cardinals appears with a minimum probability of 0.1%.
- Rams: 14.9% chance of Super Bowl
- Seahawks: 7.0%
- 49ers: 6.8%
- Bills: 10.7%
- Ravens: 9.4%
The division features the second most difficult schedule in the league for Rams, behind only Cardinals. Ainda thus, the cast makes up for the challenge.
Patriots stays out of the top 10 despite going to Super Bowl
New England Patriots becomes the first team in FPI history to reach Super Bowl and appear outside the top 10 in the following preseason. The 14th place reflects the easier path last season.
The team faced one of the weakest schedules in the NFL. Nos playoffs, took accessible opponents. Agora the scenario changes.
The acquisition of wide receiver A.J. Brown strengthens the aerial attack, which was already the highlight. Mesmo thus, the FPI gives only a 2.7% chance of title and 6.7% return to Super Bowl. Os Patriots are underdogs to beat AFC East, with 30.6% against 67.6% for Bills.
Chiefs is experiencing the lowest moment of the Mahomes era
Kansas City Chiefs opens the 2026 season in ninth place in the FPI. It is the worst pre-season placement since 2018, the year in which Patrick Mahomes took over as starter.
The model considers the attack’s recent difficulties, the loss of two starting cornerbacks to Rams and the recovery of Mahomes after an injury to his left knee. The quarterback appears as an asset for Semana 1, but the betting market already incorporates uncertainty.
Projeções names Bills and Rams as top finalists
The FPI simulates the season thousands of times. The most likely match for Super Bowl LXI is Bills versus Rams, with a 4.8% chance.
Rams against Ravens is close behind, with 4.7%. Outros possible matchups include Seahawks vs. Bills and Rams vs. Chiefs. Há 28% probability of one of the top ten combinations coming to fruition.
NFC North has Lions as a slight favorite
Os Lions appear as narrow favorites to win the division despite the lighter schedule. Detroit has a 38.2% chance against 32.8% for Packers.
Os Bears, Packers and Vikings face tougher NFC opponents West. Os Lions takes Cardinals, in addition to Giants. Chicago, who won the division in 2025, has just a 19.4% chance of repeating the feat according to the model.
The numbers show that Bears may have exceeded expectations last season. The defense relied heavily on turnovers and quarterback Caleb Williams had ups and downs.
Chances playoffs by conference
AFCBills 84.9% Ravens 82.5% Bengals 69.2% Chiefs 67.6% Chargers 65.1% Patriots 61.1%
NFCRams 81.8% Seahawks 69.1% Lions 68.4% 49ers 66.8% Packers 63.3% Eagles 60.5%
The FPI combines win totals from the betting market, schedule and factors such as the difference between starting and backup quarterbacks. In-season updates will come based on actual performance on offense, defense and special teams.