A strong El Niño climate phenomenon, with official confirmation of its arrival, could disrupt the global climate pattern and severely impact agricultural production in the coming months. However, the presence of global grain reserves close to record levels, combined with the forecast of regular weather conditions in some large producing areas and prior planning, has the potential to mitigate the expected adverse effects.
Generally characterized by periods of heat and water scarcity in Asia, and heavy rainfall in the Americas, El Niño is projected by experts to intensify even further. There is a possibility that the current episode exceeds in severity past events that resulted in destroyed harvests, a series of natural disasters and global economic losses in the order of tens of billions of dollars.
Shirley Mustafa, an economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), pointed to a more favorable scenario, highlighting the existence of abundant global stocks and recent abundant harvests of rice and other cereals. She added that these global reserves should contribute significantly to mitigating a portion of the effects of El Niño.
Global rice reserves have reached an unprecedented milestone, recording a volume of 196.16 million tons in the year 2026.
While regions such as Asia and Australia face the most significant threat from the climate phenomenon, in Europe and China atmospheric conditions are expected to be less severe.
Analysis of historical events and the reaction capacity of current reserves
The “super El Niño” episode that occurred between 2015 and 2016 caused droughts, floods and historic temperature spikes on a global scale, seriously affecting agricultural production from Asia to Africa. The previous event, recorded in 1997 and 1998, was responsible for widespread losses, with devastating floods, large forest fires and considerable crop damage.
However, the scenario for the 2026/27 El Niño presents a distinct nuance. Successive years of exceptional harvests have boosted global food stocks to high levels, with particular emphasis on nations that are major consumers and exporters.
According to data provided by the USDA, global wheat stocks are expected to reach 279.95 million metric tons at the beginning of the agricultural year, on July 1. This volume represents the highest level recorded in the last five years.
Russia, recognized as the largest wheat exporter in the world, and other relevant producers in the Northern Hemisphere, are at the height of harvesting a remarkable crop. Despite this, concerns remain regarding the wheat harvest in the United States, which suffered the effects of a period of drought.
At the beginning of 2026, global rice stocks reached a historic level of 196.16 million tons. India, responsible for 40% of all world grain exports, holds reserves that exceed the target set by its government by around five times. Likewise, Indonesia, one of the largest global rice importers, also records a record volume in its reserves.
Sutarto Alimoeso, who chairs the Indonesian Rice Mills and Entrepreneurs Association, emphasized that the effect of El Niño will be determined by how well each nation prepares this year. This preparation includes investments in irrigation systems and improving water pumping capacity.
While Australia, Southeast Asia and India are subject to the greatest threats from El Niño, projections indicate that China, the Black Sea area and the European continent are expected to experience less severe weather conditions.
According to a study released this week by the British Parliament, Europe’s climate system has a considerable geographic distance from El Niño. Although connections between weather conditions and European weather patterns may occasionally emerge, the predictability of these relationships is often complex.
El Niño usually causes an increase in rainfall in the Americas, becoming a threat to agriculture and infrastructure only when precipitation results in flooding.
How Rio Grande do Sul organizes itself amid the 2024 disaster recovery
In Rio Grande do Sul, communities that are still recovering from the catastrophic floods that occurred two years ago are now in the process of preparing for a high-intensity El Niño. As meteorologists point out, this phenomenon could be the vector of extreme rainfall for the region this year.
In the capital Porto Alegre, the remains of the tragedy are still visible, with rubble and demolished homes of people who had to leave their homes. This reality serves as a constant reminder of the flood of May 2024, which claimed the lives of at least 181 individuals and represented the largest evacuation of homes in Brazil in three decades.
Marilian Fontoura, resident of the Sarandi neighborhood in Porto Alegre, expressed the residents’ fears: “People are scared.” In his home, water marks reaching the ceiling reveal the height reached by the flood waters.
“If it rains again, if there is another heavy rain, another flood, what will happen? We will lose everything again”, asked Marilian Fontoura, summarizing the apprehension that dominates the local community.
Even in the face of recent investments in infrastructure, in addition to the implementation of warning and monitoring systems, the Sarandi neighborhood persists as a vivid representation of the urban fragility of the capital of Rio Grande do Sul.
The mayor of Porto Alegre, Sebastião Melo (MDB), assured that the metropolis is in a safer condition compared to 2024. He guaranteed that the municipal management is working “intensely” to restore pumping stations, rebuild dikes and improve containment floodgates.
During this week, the company responsible for water and sewage services in Porto Alegre chose a consortium to carry out flood protection interventions. These works will be paid for by the state, with an investment of approximately R$24.2 million.
“With regard specifically to El Niño, we are accelerating some immediate projects that, under other circumstances, would have been started at a later time,” declared Mayor Melo.
However, the population, represented by Marilian Fontoura, expresses dissatisfaction with the stoppage of important projects. An example is the work on a nearby dike, which has been interrupted as a result of expropriation disputes involving local inhabitants and the municipal administration.
Additionally, the state government has also undertaken preparedness actions, directing R$38 million towards the creation of a logistics center for operations in calamity situations. An additional R$33 million was invested in a program aimed at preparing for El Niño, with the aim of safeguarding the municipalities most susceptible to the impacts of the phenomenon.