Projections for the Mexican team at the 2026 World Cup began to adjust with the tournament’s recent matches. The scenario for the first knockout phase, the so-called round of 32 stage, indicates a series of potential clashes, while some initial threats have dissipated, including Spain.
Changes in initial projections of Mexico’s rivals
The Mexican team’s prospects for the knockout phase of the 2026 World Cup have undergone a significant turnaround. Previously, Spain was seen as a likely opponent, a scenario that changed after their performance on the field. With La Roja’s impressive victory over Saudi Arabia, the Spanish team secured its advanced position in the competition.
Saudi Arabia’s 4-0 defeat against Spain removed the Europeans from the possibility of a direct confrontation with Mexico in the round of 16. This result elevated the Saudis to the position of potential rival of the Mexican team, reorganizing the strength of the knockout stage. The definitive duels are still in the making, but some names are already emerging for the Mexican team.
Understanding the new round of 32 knockout phase
The 2026 World Cup introduces an expanded format with 48 teams, which implies the creation of a new stage before the traditional round of 16. This “round of 32” is an additional knockout round, where 32 teams will face each other to define the 16 that will advance to the round of 16 (popularly known as the ‘round of 16’). For Mexico, this means a potentially longer and more complex path to the final stages, with the need to win an extra match.
Saudi Arabia in El Tri’s sights as possible opponent
Saudi Arabia emerges as one of the teams that could cross Mexico’s path in the round of 32 stage. The team had its position changed in the scenario of possible clashes after the defeat against Spain. With a 12% probability, according to predictive models, the Saudi team presents itself as one of the options for El Tri.
Cape Verde appears as a possibility for the Mexican team
Another country that stands out in the analyzes is Cape Verde. Before their game against Uruguay, the African team had a 17% chance of being Mexico’s opponent, according to sports data modeling. This probability puts Cape Verde in a position of attention for Mexican coaches and fans, who closely follow the formation of groups and clashes.
Scotland tops list of potential Mexico opponents
The team most likely to face Mexico at the Mexico City Stadium is Scotland. The Scots currently occupy third place in Group C and have a 39% chance of being the opponent. The team beat Haiti 1-0 and lost to Morocco by the same score, preparing for a final group stage clash against Brazil, who are competing for the top of the group.
Overview of future clashes at the 2026 World Cup
While the definition of the brackets still awaits the outcome of the group stage, the scenario begins to shape itself for the Mexican team. The search for a prominent place in the new format of the 2026 World Cup will require focus and detailed analysis of the opponents. The following list shows the current odds of Mexico’s potential opponents in the round of 32 stage.
- Scotland: 39%
- Cape Verde: 17%
- Saudi Arabia: 12%
It is important to note that the opponent will be one of the teams that finish third in groups C, E, F, H and I. Mexico’s path in the world cup is constantly evolving, with each result influencing the match projections.