While the global economic scenario shows signs of gradual recovery after the challenges posed by the war in Iran, a new threat of great impact emerges, completely escaping political control.
The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed the occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, a natural event known for raising temperatures. Initial projections suggest that this cycle could have significant repercussions on the global climate and economy.
Even in its initial phases, this El Niño indicates the potential to be an event of great intensity, with climatic consequences that could quickly spread across the planet. Historically, similar occurrences have severely impacted supply chains, generating increased costs and increasing vulnerabilities in sectors such as agriculture and global food supply.
If current estimates are confirmed, the climate process developing in the Pacific Ocean could go beyond simple changes in precipitation regimes.
A rapidly strengthening 'super' El Niño could supercharge global temperatures, pushing Earth past unprecedented heat records by 2027.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has officially declared the arrival of a new El Niño, and its unprecedented rate… pic.twitter.com/UhFrA0riNZ— Smart Science (@SmartScience) June 23, 2026
Robert Muggah, a political scientist with experience advising governments on security, warned in a recent article in the World Economic Forum that “El Niño is often treated as just a meteorological issue, but in 2026, this could lead to a dangerous sense of complacency.”
Muggah highlighted that “the latest forecast should be seen as an early warning for governments, businesses and humanitarian agencies to prepare for what could be a major systemic shock.”
The global impact of El Niño rains, droughts and trillion-dollar losses
The emergence of El Niño generally occurs every few years, as a result of the weakening of the prevailing winds over the Pacific, and its characteristics can persist for up to twelve months. Typically, these winds move warmer surface waters from the Americas to the Asian continent and Oceania.
However, El Niño interferes with this flow, concentrating heated waters near the North and South American coasts. This change causes changes in global climate patterns, causing, for example, severe droughts in Indonesia and heavy rains in the southern United States.
The strength of an El Niño event is commonly associated with the degree to which Pacific water temperatures rise above the historical average, and some preliminary projections already indicate a remarkably intense episode for the current year.
NOAA reported that there is a 63% probability that sea surface temperatures in the Pacific will exceed the average by 2.0°C, a condition that defines an El Niño classified as “very strong”.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) corroborated this perspective, anticipating an “at least moderate — and possibly strong” event, drawing a parallel with past cycles of substantial warming.
This scenario represents a concern for the global economy. Research published in 2023 by Science magazine examined the financial impacts of two of the three most powerful El Niños ever documented, which occurred in 1982 and 1997. The study revealed that climate changes resulting from these phenomena resulted in global income losses of US$4.1 trillion and US$5.7 trillion, in that order.
Such losses were largely attributed to severe climate events, such as losses in food production caused by intense heat waves and floods.
The same research estimated that, throughout the 21st century, the combined impacts of El Niños could accumulate an amount of US$84 trillion in economic losses.
Although detailed projections on the specific costs of the current El Niño will take some time to be published, analysts are already anticipating a challenging period. Many climate models indicate that the phenomenon in 2026 could reach an intensity similar to that of the greatest historical episodes. This scenario is particularly worrying as the global economy is already facing the consequences of recent geopolitical events, such as the war in Iran, creating an environment of amplified vulnerability to external shocks.
According to an analysis released this Monday by the risk rating agency Fitch, the effects will be more pronounced in less developed economies.
Countries that rely heavily on agriculture tend to deal with high costs and greater environmental losses, but inflation represents a global concern, capable of hitting rich nations through rising food prices.
Fitch experts pointed out that “prolonged shortages could increase the risks to the prices of globally traded food commodities caused by the El Niño phenomenon, potentially affecting inflation prospects even in countries with high credit ratings”.
The European Commission, in another forecast published on Monday, warned that crucial agricultural crops, such as wheat, corn and rice, grown in more vulnerable nations, are likely to see price increases during the El Niño period.
The impacts of an intense El Niño will also be combined with the ongoing repercussions of the conflict in Iran, which has already caused a rise in the global values of essential agricultural inputs, such as fertilizers.
Even those products that manage to be cultivated will encounter obstacles due to limitations in international trade. In addition to high fuel costs resulting from conflict, El Niño has historically affected maritime transport by lowering water levels in critical shipping lanes.
In 2023, a strong El Niño generated a prolonged drought in Central America, taking the level of the Panama Canal to historically low levels. The situation forced those responsible to reduce the number of daily crossings from 36 to just 24 vessels.
A recent update from the Panama Canal Authority predicted few significant changes to traffic flow this year, but said it is already planning operational modifications for 2027, a period when El Niño’s impact on water levels is expected to be most pronounced.
The global economy was already considering possible energy supply disruptions for next year, but may need to prepare for additional challenges.