This Wednesday, 24th, bitcoin is trading close to US$ 61 thousand, with an accumulated decline of more than 50% in relation to the historical peak of US$ 126 thousand registered in October 2025. While the performance of technology shares and the macroeconomic environment influence the prices of digital assets, the main cryptocurrency on the planet faces one of the most relevant zones of the current cycle, in the opinion of the vice president of crypto business at Mercado Bitcoin.
At the time of the calculation, bitcoin was quoted at US$61,077, registering a drop of 2.8% in the 24-hour period, according to information from CoinMarketCap. Over the last thirty days, the asset has accumulated a devaluation of over 21%.
“Bitcoin continues to struggle to stay above the 200-week simple moving average, which today is close to US$62,400, a level practically identical to the current trading level,” said Fabrício Tota, vice president of crypto business at Mercado Bitcoin.
“Despite the pressure, it is important to highlight that this region has a relevant history. It signaled the bottom of the down cycles in 2015 and 2018 and, even in 2022, when it was temporarily breached, the market was already very close to the definitive bottom of that period”, he added.
The main pressure of the crypto market
Fabrício Tota indicated that the biggest selling force at the moment comes from outside the cryptocurrency sector, with emphasis on the fall in the Nasdaq index and the correction in artificial intelligence and semiconductor stocks.
“Therefore, more than just observing bitcoin, it will be essential to monitor the behavior of technology shares in the coming days. A recovery in this segment should help defend the US$62,000 region. A new wave of sales could greatly increase the chance of a return to US$60,000”, he explained.
One of the biggest challenges for markets
Fabrício Tota highlighted that one of the main obstacles for the markets comes from the change in projections on American interest rates after the first meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) led by Kevin Warsh.
“Since the meeting, the DXY index, which assesses the strength of the dollar against a basket of global currencies, has risen more than 2%, a very significant variation for the indicator in such a short interval. This appreciation of the dollar reflects a market that is more convinced that interest rates will remain high for longer,” he said.
Market returns to betting on higher interest rates
Mercado Bitcoin’s vice president of crypto business cited figures that investors already attribute around 90% probability to an increase of 25 basis points by September. He also mentioned that the expectation of a second increase, possibly from March 2027, has strengthened again.
“This dynamic helps explain not only the pressure on bitcoin, but also the corrections seen in stocks, gold, silver and other assets sensitive to global liquidity. The logic is straightforward: higher interest rates make fixed income more attractive, remove liquidity from the markets and make credit more expensive for companies and consumers”, he concluded.