Do you trust methods that anticipate sporting results, especially if they have already been successful? Economist Joachim Klement developed a tool based on econometrics in 2014 to project the outcome of each edition of the World Cup, and its track record includes the success of the last three winners.
An article published on April 9, even before the start of the current World Cup, presented Klement’s projection: Brazil and Japan would face each other in the round of 16, with the Japanese team’s surprising victory.
Klement’s system calculates the chances of a team being champion using several unconventional factors for football, such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, population size and even temperature. Such an approach reflects a growing trend in sports analytics, where off-field metrics are incorporated to generate insights, although many still prefer the unpredictable of the game.
Klement, however, reveals that creating the model was an exercise in humility. “Originally, this was supposed to be an exercise in humility to show the world how stupid and unreliable economic models are,” said the economist. He jokes that the “worst thing” happened: he hit the champion once, twice and then a third time.
Despite the successes regarding the champions, the analyst recognizes flaws in other predictions, such as knockout matches and classifications in the group stage. The German himself warns not to take predictions too seriously: “If you bet money on the World Cup based on this system, no one will be able to help you, and you shouldn’t be surprised if you lose money.”
Economist details the scenario of Brazil’s elimination as a big underdog in the World Cup
Brazil’s defeat to Japan in the round of 16 is described by Klement as “one of the biggest upsets in the history of the World Cup”. The economist already anticipates the reactions: “I can already hear the gasps of astonishment from many readers.”
Jokingly, Klement recalls the 2014 semi-final, when he predicted Germany’s victory over Brazil. “In 2014 you didn’t believe me when I said Germany would win,” he recalls, mentioning the match at the Mineirão Stadium, in Belo Horizonte, on July 8 of that year.
For the tournament’s grand final, Klement anticipates another “surprise”: the Netherlands would be the champion, facing Portugal in the final. He points out that none of the teams are usually considered favorites for the world title.
The expert guarantees that the world will have a new world champion at the end of the competition. However, he himself considers that nothing guarantees that the final match will be a high-level spectacle.