DC’s new bet in cinemas, Supergirl disappoints and could suffer a US$ 120 million loss

Warner Bros.’s recent cinematic investment in partnership with DC Studios had a very cold reception in its first days of exhibition, signaling an imminent financial loss for the companies. Focused on the trajectory of Kara Zor-El, the famous cousin of the Man of Steel, the work did not capture the attention of viewers as planned, representing a bitter stumble for the new phase of the brand’s shared universe.

During its inaugural weekend, the tape grossed a modest US$37.1 million in the North American market and grossed US$62.6 million globally. The consolidated numbers on Monday confirmed a drop in relation to the estimates released the previous Sunday, which predicted a box office of US$38 million in the United States and around US$68 million around the world.

Millionaire spending and the fierce competition on the big screen

To get the project off the ground, the studios spent approximately US$170 million on the recording alone, adding another US$120 million directed exclusively to advertising this galactic epic. The plot, which shows the Kryptonian heroine alongside the young alien Ruthye in a relentless search for justice, came up against general disinterest and a release window full of blockbusters. The strong competition of the summer season raises serious concerns about the film’s sustainability at the box office, as the work needs to compete for viewers’ attention with the following major releases:

• “Minions & Monsters”
• “Moana”
• “A Space Odyssey”
• “Spider-Man: A New Day”

Industry experts, including Jeff Bock, from the Exhibitor Relations agency, point out that the protagonist never demonstrated enough strength to draw crowds to the cinemas, remembering that the heroine’s first adaptation in 1984 was also a historic commercial failure. This previous rejection, added to the lukewarm reviews of the current version, consolidates the view that the feature film is far from becoming an unmissable event for pop culture.

The mathematics of loss and the search for minimum profit

According to Hollywood’s unwritten rules, a super production of this size would need to hit the US$375 million mark in tickets sold worldwide just to pay for itself, as cinema chains retain half of that amount. Informants linked to the backstage of the space adventure point out that specific commercial agreements may have reduced this cutoff line to around US$300 million.

The most recent analyzes paint a picture where the work starring the Kryptonian should reach US$100 million in the United States, reaching a global ceiling of between US$200 million and US$210 million. If this math is confirmed, Warner’s coffers will suffer a hit ranging from US$100 million to US$120 million. There are slightly less pessimistic perspectives that estimate the deficit at between US$80 million and US$85 million, as long as the international box office gains extra momentum.

The contrast with Man of Steel and the franchise’s plans

The current stumble comes shortly after the triumph of “Superman”, a film that arrived last summer to restructure the publisher’s entire pantheon under the creative leadership of James Gunn and Peter Safran. Starring David Corenswet, the red-caped hero’s film won over both the specialized press and fans, accumulating US$618 million globally after a strong opening of US$125 million, proving to be a vital breather in a time of format saturation.

The commander of Warner Bros. Discovery’s David Zaslav had previously promised an ambitious decade-long timeline to revitalize these intellectual properties. The defeat of Superman’s cousin highlights the complexity of building a cohesive cinematic empire, especially when the direct rival is the consolidated Marvel universe. In an interview with The New York Times, Peter Safran minimized the immediate impact, ensuring that the studio maintains confidence in its long-term vision, even with the disappointing numbers of this premiere.

The new behavior of spectators towards comics

There was a time, before the global health crisis, when any comic book adaptation seemed to have a license to print money, drawing crowds regardless of the central character’s weight. The resounding success of “Venom” in 2018, which ignored terrible reviews from critics, illustrates this golden period well. Today, the panorama has changed drastically, transforming the public into highly demanding consumers, which has created headaches even for the all-powerful Marvel Studios with releases focused on secondary figures, such as “Thunderbolts” and “Captain America: Brave New World”.

For Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at Fandango and creator of the Box Office Theory portal, the current phenomenon does not necessarily mean that people are tired of heroes with superpowers. In the expert’s view, the public’s true exhaustion is linked to the repetition of narrative formulas, requiring studios to deliver genuinely innovative experiences within the same segment.

Cost review dictates the pace of upcoming launches

Far from declaring the end of the trend, the recent financial blow merely serves as a course adjustment for the industry. Established figures continue to attract legions, as proved by the resounding “The Batman” (2022) and “Deadpool & Wolverine” (2024). The future calendar remains full of safe bets, including the highly anticipated “Spider-Man: A New Day” and “Avengers: The End of the World”, while DC itself maintains high expectations for the arrival of “Superman: The Man of Tomorrow” in the next hot season.

Robbins believes that the production of feature films based on comic books will not stop, but will go through a much more rigorous approval filter. The consensus among analysts is that intellectual properties of lesser appeal require lean budgets, following the model of the award-winning “Joker” (2019), which cost a meager US$62 million and generated billions. DC’s next venture, the thriller focused on the villain “Clayface”, will cost just US$40 million and is already exciting the market. As Bock concludes, to justify investments of around US$200 million, the work needs to have an undeniable cultural weight; otherwise, financial prudence will be the studios’ only salvation.