Warner Bros.’ “Supergirl” movie and DC Studios recorded a lower-than-expected performance in its opening weekend, indicating a possible substantial loss for the studio. The adaptation, which addresses the story of Kara Zor-El, Superman’s cousin, failed to attract the expected audience, facing a significant setback for the recently launched DC Universe.

The production reached just US$37.1 million in North America and US$62.6 million globally in its first days of exhibition. Monday’s final collection was slightly below Sunday’s initial projections, which pointed to US$38 million in the United States and US$68 million worldwide.

Understanding production and campaign costs

Warner Bros. and DC invested around US$170 million in the film’s production and another US$120 million in the space adventure’s marketing campaign. The film follows Supergirl and the alien Ruthye on a journey of revenge and justice. The weak reception from the general public, combined with strong competition from the summer season at the cinema, such as “Minions & Monsters”, “Moana”, “A Space Odyssey” and “Spider-Man: A New Day”, raises concerns about the film’s sustainability at the box office.

More on this story: Minions & Monsters disappoints at the box office and exposes challenges for animation franchises

Market analysts such as Jeff Bock, from Exhibitor Relations, highlight that Supergirl has never been a character with a history of major box office successes. The public’s negative perception of the film reinforces the idea that the production failed to establish itself as a cinematographic event.

Learn more: Box office failure makes Supergirl quickly reach digital platforms

Forecasts and the film’s financial break-even point

Traditionally, a film of this magnitude would need approximately US$375 million in global revenue to cover its costs, considering that exhibitors keep around half of the box office. However, a source close to the “Supergirl” production estimates a break-even point closer to $300 million due to specific contractual agreements.

Projections indicate that “Supergirl” could earn a maximum of US$100 million in the United States and between US$200 million and US$210 million globally. If these goals are met, the film could record a loss of US$100 million to US$120 million during its theatrical run. Other more optimistic sources estimate a loss of between US$80 million and US$85 million, assuming that global revenue exceeds US$200 million.

Success of “Superman” and the strategy of the DC Universe

The release of “Supergirl” follows the success of “Superman,” which last summer rebooted the DC Universe under the direction of James Gunn and Peter Safran. “Superman”, starring David Corenswet, was well received by critics and audiences, grossing US$618 million worldwide after a debut of US$125 million, considered a success in a period of signs of wear and tear in the superhero genre.

On the same topic: ‘Spider-Man: A New Day’ dominates box office in low-key debut of ‘The End of Oak Street’

David Zaslav, CEO of Warner Bros. Discovery, had advocated a “bold 10-year plan” for the new DC Universe. However, “Supergirl’s” performance underscores the challenges inherent in building an interconnected film franchise, especially when competing with Disney’s Marvel Cinematic Universe. Peter Safran, one of the directors of DC Studios, told the New York Times that “Supergirl”, although it did not meet box office expectations, is part of a long-term strategy in which the studio remains confident.

Superhero fatigue and audience selectivity

Before the pandemic, superhero films seemed surefire at the box office, with audiences guaranteed success regardless of the characters’ popularity. The success of “Venom” in 2018, despite negative reviews, exemplifies this era. However, after nearly two decades of dominance, comic book adaptations are no longer a guaranteed success. Audiences have become more selective, and even the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) has faced post-COVID challenges with lesser-known characters such as “Thunderbolts” and “Captain America: Brave New World.”

Shawn Robbins, director of film analysis at Fandango and founder of Box Office Theory, suggests that this isn’t superhero fatigue, but rather “watching the same kind of movies” fatigue. The audience seeks differentiation, even within the genre.

Future of Superhero Movies and Optimized Budgets

Despite “Supergirl’s” weak start, the future of DC Studios and superhero productions is not in jeopardy. Renowned characters such as those from “The Batman” (2022) and “Deadpool & Wolverine” (2024) maintain their popularity. Future releases like “Spider-Man: A New Day” and “Avengers: The World’s End” promise to be big hits, and DC is hoping to do well with “Superman: The Man of Tomorrow” next summer.

Robbins points out that although superhero films will continue to be produced, the selection will be more careful. Analysts agree that for lesser-known comic book characters, studios need to be more conservative with production and marketing budgets. 2019’s profitable “Joker,” for example, cost just $62 million. DC’s next project, the horror “Clayface,” with a modest budget of $40 million, is viewed with optimism by box office observers. According to Bock, superhero films can still be commercially viable, but they need to be “culturally inevitable” when they involve budgets of $150 million to $200 million. Otherwise, smaller, less risky productions are the most sensible direction.