A first-of-its-kind milestone in the Sun’s eleven-year cycle offers researchers the ability to anticipate future solar activity several years in advance, as revealed on Friday, July 21, 2026. This point, named “shutdown,” marks the abrupt end of the most violent period of space weather. The number of sunspots that remain at this stage provides crucial information about the intensity of the next solar cycle. Preliminary analyzes indicate that Solar Cycle 26 may show a moderate level of activity, although a more accurate estimate is expected in approximately two years.

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Scientists have developed an innovative approach that could reveal the strength of the Sun’s next activity cycle up to seven years before it reaches its peak. This extended predictive capability is crucial for protecting technological infrastructures on Earth.

The technique focuses on the volume of sunspots observed during a newly identified phase, the “off” of the solar cycle. During this moment, the Sun’s most intense space activity appears to suddenly cease. Researchers have already applied this method to formulate an initial estimate for Solar Cycle 26.

Initial projections suggest that Cycle 26 could be of moderate intensity, with an estimated number of sunspots between 100 and 120. This would place it at a level similar to or possibly lower than the current Solar Cycle 25. However, a more detailed forecast will only be available in about two years, and both higher and lower intensity scenarios remain possibilities.

The results of this research were released during the National Astronomy Meeting of the Royal Astronomical Society, held in Birmingham.

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The Sudden End of Extreme Space Weather from the Sun

Sandra Chapman, professor of physics and director of the Center for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics at the University of Warwick, explained that “the Sun does not go to sleep gently and then wake up gradually.”

She added: “Instead, we identified that the most severe space weather stops abruptly at a specific time in each solar cycle. By determining this point, we have a new way to estimate the probability of the intensity of the next solar cycle.”

Professor Chapman anticipates that the forecast for Cycle 26 will become considerably more accurate in approximately two years. During this period, Solar Cycle 25 is expected to reach the newly discovered “turn off” point, which will allow researchers to base their calculations on direct observations rather than just projections.

The Sun operates on a cycle that lasts about eleven years. During this period, the polarity of its magnetic field reverses, while the number of visible sunspots increases and then decreases.

Sunspots are highly magnetic and active areas on the solar surface. They are capable of generating powerful solar explosions and coronal mass ejections, which release energy and electrically charged particles into space. These space weather events can cause disruptions to satellites, communications and navigation systems, and electrical grids here on Earth.

Astronomers have been observing sunspots for centuries, but each cycle behaves differently. The length and intensity of cycles can vary significantly, which has historically made it difficult to predict the strength of a future cycle.

Improvement in space weather forecasting with new solar clock

The new methodology builds on Professor Chapman’s previously developed “solar clock”, a system that organizes the Sun’s irregular cycles into a standardized pattern. This research demonstrated that extreme space weather phenomena do not progressively decrease at the end of a cycle. Instead, they cease at a clearly defined stage.

Professor Chapman and her team found that the count of visible sunspots at this stage has a direct connection with the maximum number of sunspots reached in the following solar cycle.

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This correlation offers a new way to estimate the intensity of a future cycle approximately six to seven years in advance of its peak. Existing forecasting methods generally provide much less advance warning, as they rely on waiting for solar minimum, the Sun’s least active phase.

The technique also indicates a specific period in which the magnetic field responsible for the next cycle is expected to establish. Scientists hope this timeline will help deepen understanding of the solar dynamo, which is the mechanism that creates and maintains the Sun’s magnetic field.

Professor Chapman said: “We are about two years away from the switch-off point of the current Solar Cycle 25. We currently need to estimate where that point will manifest, but once it is reached we will be able to use observations alone to make a much more accurate prediction for Solar Cycle 26.”

“This will still give us around seven years of warning about the likely intensity of the cycle”, he highlighted.

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How Previous Predictions Got Cycle 25 Activity Right

The method had already signaled that Solar Cycle 25 would be more intense than many of the initial predictions indicated. This amplified activity has contributed to the remarkable aurora borealis that have been seen in recent years.

The UK witnessed several historic solar storms in 2024 as Cycle 25 approached its “solar maximum”, the period of peak activity. The most significant events occurred between May 10th and 13th.

A large cluster of sunspots near solar maximum has triggered the most severe geomagnetic storms to hit Earth in more than two decades. These events resulted in intense and widespread auroras across the UK, with the aurora borealis visible even in southern regions such as Devon and Cornwall.

In 2022, Professor Chapman was awarded the Royal Astronomical Society’s Chapman Medal. The recognition was granted for his pioneering research into the study of the behavior of planetary magnetic fields and the mechanisms by which these fields give rise to space weather.

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Understand why solar storms decrease

The newly identified “off” point occurs when active sunspot regions move to a latitude lower than approximately 15 solar degrees.

During each solar cycle, sunspots form a pattern known as a “butterfly.” They first appear at higher latitudes and, as the cycle progresses, they gradually move towards the solar equator.

The Sun has a differential rotation, which means that its different latitudes rotate at different speeds. However, below about 15 degrees latitude this variation in rotational speed attenuates. This creates an area of ​​co-rotation around the solar equator called the solar “jet stream.”

Professor Chapman suggests that the most powerful coronal mass ejections are driven by differential rotation. As parts of the Sun rotate at different speeds, they distort the emerging magnetic field and accumulate energy. When active sunspot regions move closer than 15 degrees from the equator, this distortion mechanism weakens, and the main factor responsible for extreme space weather events is deactivated.

To verify this hypothesis, Professor Chapman analyzed the 27-day correlation (corresponding to the average solar rotation) in the aa index (which measures geomagnetic activity on Earth) and compared it with recorded space weather events.

After the shutdown point, geomagnetic storms showed lower intensity and followed a 27-day pattern. This indicates that they were likely generated by co-rotating flows rather than coronal mass ejections.