A high-speed collision is expected to hit the lunar surface on August 5, when a discarded upper stage from a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is expected to impact the natural satellite. This event, of human origin and unintentional, promises to generate a visible “dust rain” on the Moon.
This Falcon 9 fragment is a trace of a launch that took place on January 15, 2025. In that mission, the rocket carried Firefly’s Blue Ghost-1 landing module and also Hakuto-R Mission 2, known as Resilience, a robotic module developed by iSpace, a Japanese company.
Learn more: Impact on the Moon: SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket fragment causes collision
As revealed by recent research, conducted by an international group and made available on the open source server arXiv, the cloud of debris generated by the impact could be sufficiently luminous. It can be observed for a short time against the dark lunar sky, near the edge, allowing astronomers with highly sensitive telescopes to view it.
The expectation is that the impact of this out-of-control stage will occur in the region of the craters Einstein and Bell, located in the western portion of the Moon. The visibility of the phenomenon is considered high, both for those observing from Earth and from space. Although there are uncertain variables and models, experts on the subject indicate that the event is worth following by those who have the means and the opportunity.
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Using specific physics simulations to model the collision, William Jo, a graduate research assistant at the University of Texas at Austin, and his team estimate that the plume of ejected fragments will reach a height of between 75 and 100 kilometers (equivalent to 47 to 60 miles) at its highest point.
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William Jo said that “our calculations indicate that the plume will be significantly brighter than the night sky during the first few moments after impact.” He added, however, that “the plume should be visible, although I need to highlight that this is a unique hypothetical scenario. The reality may be different, and the projections are optimistic. However, the key aspect is not the brightness itself.”
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Scientist William Jo highlighted the scientific importance of what happened. “Observing this event provides us with an unusual opportunity to investigate the science of ejection plumes and adjust our models based on a real event, crucial knowledge for all future missions to the Moon,” said Jo.