China announces 5% growth in GDP for the first quarter despite global tensions

China’s GDP grew 5% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period of the previous year. The result came above the average forecast of 4.8% made by economists consulted by Reuters. The data was released by Departamento Nacional of Estatísticas on Thursday, April 16. The Chinese economy totaled 33.4 trillion yuan in the period. Esse performance represents acceleration compared to the 4.5% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The expansion occurred as the conflict at Irã, which began in late February with attacks by Estados Unidos and Israel, caused disruptions in global trade and raised energy prices. China warned of a more complex and unstable external environment. Ainda thus, the initial numbers of the year showed resilience in several indicators.

Exportações and Industry Sustain Early Advance

Strong exports in the first two months helped boost the result. The industrial sector recorded growth above the general average. High-tech Produtos contributed significantly to factory production. Investment in infrastructure also supported activity.

Domestic consumption, however, continued at a more moderate pace. The housing crisis that has dragged on since 2021 continues to limit family demand in some regions. Excess capacity in certain industrial segments generated additional pressure on prices.

• Exportações of electrical and mechanical goods grew at a high rate in the initial months
• Industrial Produção advanced in line with general GDP
• Investimentos fixed assets in urban assets recorded positive change
• Vendas in retail showed an increase, but at a contained level
• Setor of services maintained stable contribution to the total

Esses elements explain part of the composition of quarterly growth. The quarter by quarter showed an increase of 1.3%, in line with estimates.

Alertas officials on external and internal risks

Estatísticas’s Departamento Nacional acknowledged the economy’s solid start to this year. At the same time, he highlighted challenges at both domestic and international levels. The official statement mentioned structural imbalances, such as excessive supply in some sectors and weak demand in others.

The war on Irã introduced a new layer of uncertainty. Disruptions to energy supplies and trade corridors affect global demand for Chinese goods. Higher oil Preços could raise production and transportation costs for exporting companies.

Analistas note that China has strategic oil reserves and a diversified energy matrix. Isso has helped cushion the immediate impacts so far. The country is the largest energy importer in the world, which makes the scenario sensitive to the prolongation of the conflict.

Comparação with previous quarters and global context

The 5% growth in the first quarter interrupted the sequence of deceleration seen at the end of 2025. Naquele period, GDP had recorded the lowest pace in three years. The official target for 2026 is between 4.5% and 5%. The initial result is positioned at the upper limit of this range.

Outras large economies have not yet released their quarterly numbers. Os Estados Unidos are expected to submit their data at the end of April. China was the first major country to release the indicator after attacks on Irã began.

The conflict, which began on February 28, is already having effects on key maritime routes, such as Estreito and Ormuz. Reduções in the flow of oil and natural gas increases costs in several markets. China monitors these developments closely.

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Detalhes sectoral and complementary indicators

The primary sector grew 3.8%. The secondary sector, which includes industry and construction, increased 4.9%. The tertiary registered 5.2%. Esses numbers reflect varying contributions to the total economy.

Industrial production in March showed a slowdown in relation to previous months in some segments. Retail sales also cooled in the last month of the quarter. Esses signals suggest that the initial momentum may not be maintained evenly.

Investimentos in fixed assets helped offset some of the moderation in consumption. Gastos expanded fiscal infrastructure provided additional support to the activity.

The consumer price index rose 0.9% year on year. Inflation remains at a controlled level, without strong pressure from internal demand.

Perspectivas for the next few months

Estatísticas’s Departamento Nacional highlighted that the external environment tends to become more volatile. Internal Desequilíbrios, such as oversupply in specific sectors, remain present. The combination of these factors requires attention in economic policies.

Especialistas point out that the full impact of the turbulence on Oriente Médio could still materialize in the following quarters. China’s dependence on exports makes the country sensitive to any reduction in global demand.

Reservas oil and energy diversification offers some cushion in the near term. However, higher energy costs could squeeze company margins and affect the competitiveness of Chinese products abroad.

The Chinese government has room for policy adjustments if the scenario deteriorates. Selective stimulus Medidas have already been used in previous periods to support specific sectors.

The release of GDP reinforces the role of China as one of the main economies in the world at a time of global uncertainty. The 5% figure in the first quarter offers an initial reference on the capacity to absorb external shocks.