Five teams are already out of the 2026 World Cup even before the end of the group stage, after the end of the second round in the early hours of this Wednesday. The early elimination is a direct result of one of the most significant changes implemented by FIFA for this edition: the direct confrontation criteria, which now serves as the first tiebreaker in the groups. Historically, goal difference and points were priorities in many competitions, but the change directly impacts the teams’ strategy.
Due to this new methodology, even though these teams can still score three points in the final round, they no longer have the possibility of reaching third place in their respective groups. It is worth remembering that the eight best third-placed teams advance to the next stage of the tournament. The nations disqualified in the second round are:
- Haiti (group C)
- Türkiye (group D)
- Tunisia (group F)
- Jordan (group J)
- Panama (group L)
FIFA’s updated regulations establish that, in the event of a tie on points between two or more teams in the same group after the final round, the classification will be defined by the following criteria, applied in sequence:
- Head-to-head
- Goal difference
- Goals scored
- Team conduct (considering red and yellow cards)
- FIFA ranking
Haiti’s early elimination from group C
The Haitian national team lost their opening match to Scotland 1-0, and was later beaten by Brazil 3-0. Given this scenario, even if they achieve a victory against Morocco in the last round, the team will not be able to advance to third place. The reason lies in the fact that they lost the direct confrontation with Scotland, while Brazil and Morocco already have four points each.
Turkey’s winless record in group D
Turkey’s campaign was pointless, with defeats to Australia 2-0 and Paraguay 1-0 in the first two matches. With that, the team is officially eliminated. A possible victory against the United States in the final round would not be enough, as the Turks would be behind the Australians and Paraguayans in the direct confrontation criteria.
The defeats suffered by Tunisia in group F and their disqualification
Tunisia had a difficult participation, suffering two defeats: 5-1 against Sweden and 4-0 against Japan. Even in a hypothetical scenario of victory with a big advantage over the Netherlands and a defeat for Sweden against Japan, Tunisia would not be able to reach third place, as they would be at a disadvantage in the direct confrontation with the Swedes.
Jordan’s fate in group J and the impact of the head-to-head
The Jordan team started their journey with a 3-1 defeat to Austria and then lost 2-1 to Algeria. Thus, even if they manage to beat Argentina in the decisive round and equal the score of the third placed team in Group J, the team will remain in last place due to the direct confrontation criterion.
Panama’s results in group L prevent advancement in the competition
Panama also suffered two defeats in their first matches: 1-0 against Ghana and 1-0 against Croatia. Although a victory over England in the last round could take the team to three points, Panama would not be able to overcome Croatia, who currently occupy third place, due to the disadvantage in the direct confrontation between the two teams.