The death of Pope Francis on April 21, 2025, reignited debates about a 900-year-old enigmatic text known as the Prophecy of the Popes. Attributed to the Irish archbishop Malachy, the document, supposedly written in 1139, lists 112 popes who would lead the Catholic Church until the end of times. According to interpretations, the final pope, named “Peter the Roman,” would guide the Church through great tribulations, culminating in the destruction of the “city of seven hills”—a reference to Rome—and the final judgment. Discovered in 1595 by Benedictine monk Arnold Wion in the Vatican archives, the prophecy returned to the spotlight after Francis’ death, with speculation that the next pope could be the last or that Francis himself marked the end of the Roman Church. While some see apocalyptic signs in global events like wars and international tensions, others question the text’s authenticity, pointing to possible political manipulations in the 16th century.
Malachy, a 12th-century Irish cleric, is described as a reformer who aligned the Irish Church with Roman Catholic practices. During a visit to Rome, he reportedly had a vision of the 112 popes, which he recorded in the prophecy. The text, however, was only revealed four centuries later, raising doubts about its origin. For some, the accuracy of descriptions up to 1590 contrasts with the vagueness of later predictions, suggesting the document may have been crafted to influence the papal election of that year.
Interest in the prophecy has grown amid global crises. The war in Ukraine, ongoing for over three years, tensions between the United States and China, and conflicts in the Middle East fuel interpretations that the world is nearing collapse. Francis’ death at 88, after 37 days hospitalized for pneumonia, intensified these speculations, with esoteric groups and conspiracy enthusiasts pointing to the prophecy as an imminent warning.
Elements of Malachy’s prophecy
The Prophecy of the Popes consists of 112 Latin mottos, each associated with a pope, from Celestine II in 1143 to the supposed final one, Peter the Roman. The mottos, such as “Light in the sky” or “Shepherd and sailor,” are interpreted as references to characteristics, origins, or events of the pontificate. Key points include:
- Last pope: Peter the Roman would lead during “many tribulations,” with Rome’s destruction.
- End of times: The prophecy suggests the end of the Church or world would occur 442 years after 1585, pointing to 2027.
- Varied interpretations: Some link Francis to Peter, while others expect a new pope with that name.
- Historical criticism: Experts suggest the text was manipulated in the 16th century to favor specific candidates.
Historical context of Malachy
Born in 1094 in Armagh, Ireland, Saint Malachy was a cleric known for his reforms and mystical visions. Ordained archbishop in 1132, he worked to unify the Irish Church with Vatican practices, facing local resistance. During a 1139 trip to Rome to receive the pallium, a symbol of his authority, he reportedly received the vision of the 112 popes. Legend claims he gave the manuscript to Pope Innocent II, who stored it in the Vatican archives, where it remained forgotten until 1595.
The text’s discovery by Arnold Wion, a Benedictine historian, occurred during a period of political disputes in the Vatican. The precision of descriptions for popes up to 1590, such as their coats of arms, hometowns, or notable events, contrasts with the ambiguity of later predictions. This led scholars to suggest the document was forged to influence the 1590 papal election, when Cardinal Girolamo Simoncelli was a favorite, but Niccolò Sfondrati, who became Gregory XIV, was elected.
Despite controversies, the prophecy captured the imagination of the faithful and esoteric enthusiasts. With each pope’s death, speculations resurface, especially in times of crisis. Francis’ death, in a context of global instability, reinforced the narrative that the world is approaching a catastrophic event, predicted for 2027, according to some interpretations of the text.
The 1590 election and suspicions of manipulation
The 1590 papal election is key to understanding doubts about the prophecy’s authenticity. After the death of Urban VII, who reigned for only 12 days, the conclave saw a heated contest among cardinals. Girolamo Simoncelli, backed by Italian factions, was a strong candidate, and some believe the Prophecy of the Popes was created or altered to favor his candidacy. The motto for the 1590 pope, “De rore caeli” (From the dew of heaven), was interpreted as a reference to Simoncelli’s coat of arms, but Niccolò Sfondrati’s election thwarted those expectations.
The accuracy of descriptions up to 1590, including details like names, religious orders, or specific events, suggests the text was written or revised at that time. Post-1590 mottos become vague, such as “Burning fire” or “Depopulated religion,” allowing broad interpretations that fit nearly any pontificate. This shift led historians to question whether Wion, or someone close to him, fabricated the text for political purposes.
The Catholic Church has never officially recognized the prophecy, and theologians consider it apocryphal. Yet, its popularity persists, fueled by literary works like Glenn Cooper’s The Last Pope and documentaries exploring apocalyptic theories. Francis’ death brought renewed attention to the text, with debates about its relevance in a world marked by conflict and uncertainty.
Modern interpretations of the prophecy
The Prophecy of the Popes gained new life in the 21st century, particularly after the elections of Benedict XVI in 2005 and Francis in 2013. Benedict XVI’s motto, “Glory of the olive,” was linked to the Benedictine order, known as Olivetans, while Francis’ “Peter the Roman” sparked speculation due to the absence of a pope with that name. Some interpret Francis, as the first Jesuit and Latin American, as a break from tradition, while others await a future pope named Peter.
Global events have intensified discussions. The war in Ukraine, ongoing since 2022, has caused over 500,000 casualties, including deaths and injuries, according to UN estimates. Tensions between the United States and China, with trade and military disputes in the South China Sea, fuel fears of global conflict. In the Middle East, escalating violence between Israel and groups like Hamas, with over 40,000 deaths since 2023, reinforces perceptions of instability. These scenarios are seen by some as the “tribulations” foretold by Malachy.
The prophecy is also debated in online forums and social media, where esoteric and religious groups analyze the mottos for clues. The year 2027, calculated as 442 years after the text’s supposed 1585 writing, is cited as the time of the Church’s or world’s end. Francis’ death, after a 12-year pontificate, heightened these speculations, with many questioning whether the next conclave will elect the final pope.
Global crises and apocalyptic appeal
The current context amplifies the prophecy’s allure. Beyond armed conflicts, the world faces challenges like climate change, with global temperatures rising 1.2°C since pre-industrial times, and migration crises, with 281 million international migrants in 2024, according to the IOM. These issues, combined with political polarization in countries like the United States and Brazil, create an uncertain scenario that fuels apocalyptic narratives.
Francis’ death, as the first Latin American pope, was a milestone. Elected in 2013, he led the Church with a focus on mercy, interfaith dialogue, and social justice, but faced resistance for his openness to issues like LGBTQIA+ rights and critiques of capitalism. His frail health, marked by hospitalizations in 2024 and 2025, culminated in his death from respiratory complications. Global mourning, with millions following the funeral rites in Rome, reignited interest in the papal succession and Malachy’s prophecy.
The Church now prepares for the conclave, scheduled for May 2025, to elect the next pope. Expectations are high, with names like Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle and Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin among the papabile. The possibility of a pope named Peter, or a pontificate marked by crises, keeps the prophecy alive in popular and academic discussions.
Details of the prophetic text
The Prophecy of the Popes is structured in short phrases, each tied to a pope. Notable examples include:
- Celestine II (1143-1144): “Ex castro Tiberis” (From the castle of the Tiber), linked to his origin near the Tiber River.
- Gregory XIV (1590-1591): “De rore caeli” (From the dew of heaven), tied to his family’s coat of arms.
- Benedict XVI (2005-2013): “Glory of the olive,” interpreted as a reference to the Benedictines.
- Francis (2013-2025): “Peter the Roman,” debated as the last pope or a symbol of rupture.
The 2025 conclave and the next pope’s choice
Francis’ death initiated the sede vacante period, with Camerlengo Cardinal Kevin Farrell administering the Vatican. The conclave, set to begin between May 6 and 10, will gather up to 120 voting cardinals, with 138 currently eligible, per Paul VI’s rules. The election, held in the Sistine Chapel, requires a two-thirds majority and is marked by rituals like white smoke announcing the new pope.
The next pontiff’s choice will be influenced by Francis’ legacy, who appointed 47% of the voting cardinals. Candidates from regions like Africa and Asia, where Catholicism is growing, are gaining prominence, reflecting the Church’s demographic shift. The possibility of a pope named Peter, or a brief pontificate due to predicted “tribulations,” keeps the prophecy central to speculations.
The process is governed by the constitution Universi Dominici Gregis, ensuring secrecy and isolation. Cardinals, housed at Domus Sanctae Marthae, vote in up to four daily rounds, with black smoke signaling inconclusive ballots. The 2013 election, which chose Francis in two days, is an example of a swift conclave, but duration depends on voter consensus.
Papal succession timeline
The period following Francis’ death follows a strict schedule:
- April 21 to 30, 2025: Mourning (novendiales), with a funeral between April 25 and 27.
- April 22 to May 5: General congregations to discuss the Church’s future.
- May 6 to 10: Conclave begins in the Sistine Chapel.
- Mid-May: Announcement of the new pope with the Habemus Papam proclamation.
Controversies and skepticism
The Prophecy of the Popes’ authenticity is widely debated. Historians suggest the text may have been created in the 16th century to manipulate papal elections, with evidence in its accuracy up to 1590 and vagueness thereafter. The lack of records before 1595 supports the theory that Arnold Wion, or an ally, produced it for political ends.
Catholic theologians, such as those from US Catholic, dismiss the prophecy as fiction or propaganda. The Church has never endorsed it, and popes like Benedict XVI and Francis avoided commenting. Still, its cultural influence persists, driven by books, films, and series exploring apocalyptic themes. Francis’ death, in a world in crisis, gave new momentum to these discussions.
Criticism also extends to interpretations. The mottos, being symbolic, allow broad associations, like linking “Shepherd and sailor” to John XXIII for his pastoral leadership or “Burning fire” to Paul VI for his turbulent pontificate. This flexibility makes the prophecy adaptable to any context but reduces its historical credibility.
Popular fascination and cultural impact
The Prophecy of the Popes transcends religion, influencing popular culture. Books like Dan Brown’s The Da Vinci Code and Glenn Cooper’s The Last Pope explore Vatican conspiracy themes, while Netflix and History Channel documentaries analyze its predictions. On social media, hashtags like #MalachyProphecy and #EndOfTheWorld gain traction with each papal event, amassing millions of views on platforms like TikTok and X.
Francis’ death intensified this phenomenon. Religious and esoteric groups host lectures and webinars, while digital influencers post videos analyzing the mottos. The year 2027, cited as the end, is debated on forums like Reddit, where users share theories about the next pope and global events. This interest reflects a search for meaning in uncertain times, with the prophecy serving as a narrative to explain chaos.
The Church remains officially silent, focusing on conclave preparations. The contrast between the election process’s spirituality and apocalyptic speculations highlights the tension between faith and sensationalism. The next pope’s election, whether named Peter or not, will be a defining moment for the Church and those who see the prophecy as a glimpse of the future.
Curiosities about the prophecy
The Prophecy of the Popes is surrounded by intriguing facts that fuel its mystique:
- Hidden origin: The manuscript was only revealed 456 years after Malachy’s supposed vision.
- Enigmatic mottos: Phrases like “Flower of flowers” or “Light in the sky” are subjectively interpreted.
- Modern popularity: The prophecy inspired films, books, and series like The Young Pope.
- Official rejection: The Church deems the text apocryphal but does not ban its discussion among the faithful.
The Church’s future and the prophecy
Francis’ death opened a new chapter for the Catholic Church, with the 2025 conclave being one of the most anticipated in recent history. The next pope’s choice, in a world marked by wars, environmental crises, and polarization, will be crucial for shaping the institution’s path. Malachy’s prophecy, though contested, adds intrigue, with speculations about a pope named Peter or a final pontificate.
The prophecy’s allure reflects humanity’s need to find patterns in times of crisis. Whether a historical text, political manipulation, or mystical vision, the Prophecy of the Popes continues to captivate global imagination. As the Vatican prepares to announce the new pope, millions follow the process, divided between faith, skepticism, and curiosity about what the future holds.
