The nomination of Jorge Messias to Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) has reached a critical three-month mark since President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced his intention to appoint the Attorney General. Despite this presidential declaration, the formal process remains in limbo, with the required official communication still pending.
This delay, hitting its three-month milestone around February 20, 2025, highlights a complex political stalemate. The essential presidential message, vital for initiating the Senate’s review—including a Constitution and Justice Commission (CCJ) hearing and a plenary vote—has not yet been dispatched from the Planalto Palace.
The prolonged wait underscores intricate power dynamics within Brasília. Questions persist regarding the timing and strategy behind such a significant judicial appointment. Without this foundational document, Messias’s high-profile confirmation is effectively frozen.
Early hurdles and senatorial resistance
President Lula’s decision to delay formal submission was a calculated move to mitigate the unprecedented risk of Senate rejection. Such a setback would mark a historical first for a Supreme Court nominee in Brazil.
A significant faction of senators voiced dissatisfaction with Messias, having championed former Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco for the vacancy. This dissent gained traction with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, who openly advocated for Pacheco.
Planalto’s concerns intensified following Alcolumbre’s initial scheduling of Messias’s hearing for December 10, 2024. This signaled robust opposition. Messias engaged in extensive lobbying, needing 41 votes in a secret ballot for approval.
Continuous lobbying amid political shifts
Over the past three months, Jorge Messias has intensified engagement with senators, holding numerous private meetings. These discussions aim to consolidate favorable votes crucial for building consensus ahead of any potential hearing.
His ongoing consultations reflect a proactive strategy to secure legislative backing. Government allies anticipated his nomination would be unblocked between late February and early March 2025, aligning with this period of intense political cultivation.
Political landscape shift and executive outlook
The broader political environment surrounding Messias’s prospective appointment has shown significant improvement since late 2024, signaling a potentially more favorable path forward.
A noticeable amelioration in the relationship between President Lula and Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has also contributed to this improved climate. Their renewed dialogue suggests greater likelihood of governmental priorities advancing.
Government strategists anticipate President Lula will finally forward the necessary message to the Senate after his return from a scheduled diplomatic trip to Asia, likely in early March 2025. This timeline aligns with current political momentum.
Senator Weverton Rocha, a government ally, has already been designated as the rapporteur for Messias’s indication. His position is expected to facilitate the process, providing crucial advocacy within the legislative body.
Evangelical bloc’s crucial support and recent controversies
Jorge Messias has actively sought endorsement from evangelical parliamentarians, recognizing their significant influence within the Senate. Gaining their support is a strategic imperative to bolster his chances.
However, recent events complicate this strategy. The evangelical caucus publicly repudiated a carnival parade by Acadêmicos de Niterói, which honored President Lula and depicted “neoconservatives in brine.” This portrayal deeply offended many within the bloc.
The fallout could complicate Messias’s efforts to consolidate support from these crucial religious leaders. It underscores the delicate balance required in navigating Brazil’s diverse political and social landscape.
Internal repercussions within the Supreme Court
The prolonged absence of a permanent successor to Justice Luís Roberto Barroso has exerted noticeable internal effects on the Supreme Federal Court, particularly within its First Panel. This body has conducted significant judgments with only four active ministers.
This situation directly impacts high-profile cases, including the investigation into the alleged masterminds behind Marielle Franco and Anderson Gomes’s assassination. This politically resonant case, slated for analysis in early March 2025, proceeds with a reduced judicial contingent.
Caseload backlog and future redistributions
Beyond these immediate critical cases, a substantial backlog of at least 912 processes previously under Justice Barroso’s rapporteurship awaits definitive resolution. These cases will ultimately transfer to the new minister once confirmed, but until then, remain under provisional assignment. The ADPF das Favelas, addressing police operations in Rio de Janeiro, is temporarily under Justice Alexandre de Moraes but will also be reassigned to the incoming member of the Court, highlighting the systemic burden.
Outlook for a resolution
The political maneuvering surrounding Jorge Messias’s nomination continues, with an anticipated resolution once President Lula returns from his international travels. The coming weeks are expected to bring clarity to this process, which has captivated observers and impacted the high court’s operational capacity.
