Dollar reaches R$ 5.22 and Ibovespa gives way in the face of US interest rates and the lower value of oil on the global market
The Brazilian financial scenario recorded this Wednesday an increase in the American currency, which surpassed R$ 5.22, reaching the highest level since March 30th. At the same time, the national stock exchange started the day falling, reflecting a growing global aversion to risk.
This caution is mainly driven by expectations of higher interest rates in the United States and the impacts on technology stocks and international stock markets. Despite this, the recent devaluation of oil on the foreign market helps to mitigate some of this pressure on assets.
Rising scenario for the dollar and falling for the stock market
The US currency reached its highest price in almost three months. Maintaining an appreciation trajectory since the beginning of the trading session, the commercial dollar was traded at R$5.216 at around 10 am, representing an increase of 0.53% compared to the previous day’s closing.
The US currency has appreciated by 6.5% since the lowest value recorded in the year, which was R$4.89 in the first week of May. The recent rise in exchange rates is attributed to a combination of internal and external factors. In Brazil, the electoral race and uncertainties about local monetary policy contribute to instability, while globally, expectations of rising interest rates in the United States and doubts about the returns on investments in Artificial Intelligence also exert pressure.
Concern about rising interest rates in the United States gained strength after the recent meeting of the Federal Reserve (Fed). Last week, the North American Central Bank, in its first meeting under the leadership of new chairman Kevin Wash, chose to maintain the reference rate between 3.50% and 3.75% annually. However, the more rigorous stance of the speech and the projections of high interest rates presented by the institution’s directors for the future accentuated expectations of greater monetary tightening in the coming months.
The fall in oil prices contributed to easing tension in the markets and reducing risk aversion. A barrel of Brent, scheduled for delivery in August and which serves as an international reference, registered a devaluation of 3.7% at 9 am (Brasília time) on the ICE Intercontinental Exchange, being traded at US$ 73.99. This value is very close to the US$ 72.48 charged before the attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran, on February 28. The stabilization of commodity prices is driven by an agreement between the countries involved in the conflict and the increase in the flow of ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the adjustment in the values of technology companies has put pressure on international stock markets. The main US indices ended the previous day lower, with significant losses in the Nasdaq and S&P 500, sectors with a strong technological presence. This Wednesday, Asian stock exchanges presented a mixed closing, after a second day of intense selling of securities. In Europe, indicators for London, Frankfurt and Paris are unstable, equally affected by the previous day’s losing session.
The correction in the portfolios of technology companies also has repercussions on the Brazilian Stock Exchange. The technology and Artificial Intelligence segment demonstrates greater sensitivity to global interest expectations, as it is in a period of high investments with a long-term return horizon. Therefore, any indication of maintaining high interest rates for an extended period negatively impacts the market valuations, or “valuation”, of these companies, as sector experts point out.
The decrease in oil prices helps to alleviate inflationary pressure, by removing part of the geopolitical risk premium from prices, which can create a less restrictive scenario for global monetary policies. For the Brazilian stock market, this trend is seen as positive, as segments such as consumption, transportation and interest-sensitive companies tend to benefit more, overcoming the negative impact on oil companies.
In the domestic scenario, the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) indicated a smaller margin for further cuts in the basic interest rate, the Selic. When justifying the third consecutive reduction of 0.25 percentage points, which took the Selic to 14.25% per year, the Copom released a statement with a more rigorous tone. The text indicates that the continuation or interruption of the easing cycle will depend on the favorable evolution of the economic environment. The board, under the leadership of Gabriel Galípolo, warned that it will be crucial to reduce current inflation and improve market projections for the IPCA, in addition to moderating fiscal stimuli that boost demand.
Leia Também
VAR decides to cancel Colombia’s goal against Portugal after a thorough analysis of the tip of the boot, impacting the classification in Group K of the 2026 World Cup
Lautaro Martínez simply scores a great penalty in Jordan x Argentina at the 2026 World Cup
Rota officer and family member of Eloá Pimentel is ambushed by gunfire at a traffic light in ABC Paulista
In the B3 futures interest market, rates fell after the release of the Copom minutes. The DI (Interfinancial Deposit) contract due in January 2027, which projects the Selic rate for the end of the year and is one of the most traded on the Brazilian stock exchange, fell from 14.217% to 14.185%. Similarly, the DI contract for January 2029 decreased from 14.773% to 14.630%.
Ibovespa started the trading session with a devaluation. The main index of the Brazilian Stock Exchange, which brings together the most liquid shares, registered a drop of 0.50%, reaching 170,408 points in the opening moments of the session.
If there is a portfolio rotation in the global market, Brazil could benefit, as it offers diversity in sectors that are not directly linked to technology and negotiates with more attractive valuations. However, if the current correction deepens and generates a widespread increase in global risk aversion, resource inflows into emerging markets, including Brazil, will likely be harmed in the short term, even if local economic fundamentals remain solid.
Analysis of the Central Bank minutes reveals a preference for a more cautious transition strategy. Instead of abrupt cycles of raising and lowering rates that could require future reversals, the institution appears to favor a slower approach, keeping interest rates at high levels for a longer period. Currently, two scenarios are considered: the first suggests the end of the cuts cycle, keeping the Selic at 14.25%; the second foresees a further reduction of 0.25 percentage points at the August meeting, taking the rate to 14%. The minutes do not offer decisive elements to rule out any of the possibilities.
The Ibovespa came from three consecutive sessions of appreciation. The Brazilian Stock Exchange’s reference index registered an increase of 0.52% the previous day, reaching 171,259 points. However, the indicator is still approximately 15% below its maximum price for the year, which was almost 199 thousand points on April 14.
News in the Brazilian corporate sector
Petrobras recorded a 10% increase in its production until the month of May, according to information released by the company’s president, Magda Chambriard. In a statement given after an event in Rio de Janeiro, Chambriard highlighted that production expansion reaches around 14% in an annual comparison, and that oil will consolidate itself as Brazil’s main export item for the third consecutive year. In the previous session, the oil company’s shares closed with an increase of 0.41%, at R$39.33.
Copasa obtained an investment grade rating from Moody’s agency for its fixed income issues. Moody’s granted the AAA.br rating, with a stable outlook, to the 16th, 18th, 19th and 21st issues of unsecured debentures by the Minas Gerais sanitation company, which total more than R$2.9 billion. The agency explained that the rating reflects the company’s operational robustness, with consistent profit margins, increased volume of services and appropriate credit indicators. The company’s shares, which recently underwent privatization, had a slight drop of 0.8% the previous day, closing at R$58.85.
Localiza, the largest car rental company in Brazil, approved the distribution of profits in the amount of R$591 million. The company’s board of directors defined the payment of R$0.54 per share, to be made on August 20th, for shareholders who hold the shares until June 26th. In the previous trading session on the Stock Exchange, the company’s common shares appreciated by 2.35%, being traded at R$41.78.
