Quaest research shows Flávio Bolsonaro numerically ahead of Lula in 2nd round simulation By Luís Henrique Costa
4 min read
 |
A survey Genial/Quaest released this Wednesday, April 15, 2026, points to senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) numerically ahead of president Luiz Inácio Lula of Silva (PT) in a second round simulation. The survey indicates that Flávio Bolsonaro registers 42% of voting intentions, against 40% for Lula.
Despite the senator’s numerical advantage, the results characterize a technical tie, considering the poll’s margin of error, which is plus or minus two percentage points. In the same second round scenario, 16% of those interviewed declared that they would vote blank or null, and another 2% were undecided. Analysis of data from the latest rounds of the survey reveals an upward trend for Flávio Bolsonaro and a downward trend for Lula.
Scenario from Segundo Turno Principal
The simulation for the second round between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula was one of the highlights of the Genial/Quaest survey. The 42% recorded by Flávio Bolsonaro represents a positive fluctuation of one percentage point compared to the previous survey, in March, when he had 41%. On the other hand, Lula had a negative fluctuation, going from 41% to the current 40% in the same period. A comparison with the three previous rounds shows that the PT member went from 43% in February to 40%, while the PL senator rose from 38% to 42%. Essa The movement consolidates a polarization in the presidential dispute, with the PT and PL pre-candidates standing out from the others.
Intentions of Voto on Primeiro Turno
Regarding the first round, the Genial/Quaest survey shows that Lula maintains the lead in stimulated voting intentions, when voting options are presented to respondents. The president appears with 37% of preference. Flávio Bolsonaro remains in second place, with 32%. The polarization between the two pre-candidates is evident, with a difference of five percentage points between them, shifting attention from the other names mentioned in the survey. The other candidates scored as follows:
- Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): 6%
- Romeo Zema (New): 3%
- Augusto Cury (Forward): 2%
- Renan Santos (Mission): 2%
- Cable Daciolo (Mobilizes): 1%
- Samara Martins (UP): 1%
- Aldo Rebelo (DC): did not score
Between Ronaldo Caiado, Augusto Cury and Renan Santos, the technical tie is observed at the limit of the margin of error. The number of blank and invalid votes totaled 11%, and 5% of those interviewed declared themselves undecided.
Others Simulações of Segundo Turno
In addition to the direct confrontation between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, the Genial/Quaest survey tested other second round scenarios. In all of them, president Luiz Inácio Lula of Silva would emerge victorious. Contra Ronaldo Caiado, the PT member would win by 43% to 35% of the votes. Nesse clash, 18% of voters indicated a blank or invalid vote, and 4% were undecided. Lula also surpassed Romeu Zema, Lula0 and Lula1 in the simulations, demonstrating its strength in a direct clash against other pre-candidates. Lula2 results reinforce the president’s centrality in the electoral dispute, even with the numerical rise of Lula3 in one of the scenarios.
Index of Rejeição of Candidatos
The research also measured the rejection rate of the main names tested. Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro appear as the candidates with the highest rejection rates among the electorate. The rejection of President Lula is numerically greater, with 55% of those interviewed stating that they know him and would not vote for him. Já Flávio Bolsonaro is rejected by 52% of those who know him. However, these indices are also in a technical tie, given the margin of error in the survey. Outros pre-candidates presented lower rejections, such as Ronaldo Caiado, which was rejected by 32%, and Romeu Zema, which would not be a voting option for 31% of respondents.
Review of Gestão Federal
Parallel to the electoral scenario, Genial/Quaest carried out an assessment of the government’s approval Lula. The results show that 52% of Brazilians disapprove of the president’s management, while 43% approve of it. The perception of the government’s performance was also measured: 42% of respondents classify federal management as negative. In contrast, 31% consider it positive, and 28% consider the government to be regular. Esses data offers an overview of the public perception of the current administration, influencing the political environment in which pre-candidates seek to consolidate their bases.
Methodology and Novidades from Pesquisa
Survey Genial/Quaest was carried out between April 9 and 13, 2026, interviewing 2,004 Brazilians aged 16 or over at home. The methodology guarantees a confidence level of 95%, with a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points. The survey is duly registered at Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) under identification number BR-09285/2026. Esta round of the survey presents some important changes compared to previous editions. It is the first time that the names of governors Ratinho Júnior (PR) and Eduardo Leite (RS), both from the PSD, were not included in the simulations. Eles competed for the party’s nomination for Palácio of Planalto, but the former governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado, ended up being chosen by the acronym. Tribunal Superior Eleitoral0 had his pre-candidacy confirmed on March 30, a week after Tribunal Superior Eleitoral1 withdrew. Tribunal Superior Eleitoral2 In addition, this survey included for the first time the former federal deputy Tribunal Superior Eleitoral3 and the writer Tribunal Superior Eleitoral4 as voting options, awaiting official confirmation from their candidacies at party conventions, which will take place between July 20th and August 5th.
