Midterms 2026: Congress control vote on November 3 could stall Trump agenda By Luís Henrique Costa
3 min read
 |
Voters in all 50 states will cast ballots on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, in midterm elections that will decide which party controls Congress during the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term. A Democratic majority in both chambers could stall the executive branch’s legislative agenda and open probes into the federal administration.
National polls put disapproval of Trump’s job performance at around 60%. Voters are unhappy with rising inflation, a higher cost of living and fuel prices that climbed after the armed conflict with Iran. To answer the opposition’s gains, Trump promised a “Trump dividend” of up to $5,000 for each adult if Republicans keep control of Congress. The payment would need congressional approval, and the White House has not explained how it would be funded.
How the November 3 vote works in the House and Senate
- Seats up: all 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats.
- Party makeup before the vote: 218 Republicans and 214 Democrats in the House; 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats in the Senate.
- Terms: House members serve two-year terms and senators serve six-year terms, with the winners sworn in from January 2027.
- Counting: each state runs its own vote count, with no central authority, and polls close at different times depending on the time zone.
Key moves that shaped the 2026 campaign since 2024
- November 2024: Republicans win the presidency and keep control of the House and Senate.
- January 2025: Trump starts his second term at the White House, and the newly elected lawmakers begin their work.
- August 2025: Texas finishes redrawing its electoral districts to widen the governing party’s seat advantage.
- November 2025: California revises its district map, giving Democrats room to challenge five Republican seats.
- March 2026: An executive order tries to restrict mail-in voting based on a federal voter registry.
- September 2026: The US Supreme Court keeps in place a suspension of extra requirements for mail ballots.
- October 2026: Polls show Democrats at 47% for the House against 35% for the governing party.
Democrats favored for the House, while the Senate is harder to call
The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia projects 225 House seats for Democrats and 193 for Republicans, with 17 seats still undefined. In the Senate, the same center points to 49 seats for the opposition, 46 for the governing party and 5 open races. The Race to the WH model gives Democrats a 95.2% chance of controlling the House and a 78.4% chance of controlling the Senate.
Read also: Donald Trump says Lula asked for neutrality in Brazil's election, G20 talks pending
In the latest RealClearPolling average, Democrats led nationally 51.5% to 43.1%. Democrats need a net gain of three House seats and four Senate seats to take both chambers. A new majority would limit fast approval of nominations and executive decrees, and opposition-led committees would gain power to subpoena officials, request documents and open formal inquiries into the executive branch from 2027.
State rules, mail ballots and redistricting fights
Each state sets its own rules and closing times. In New York, polls close at 23h Brasília time, while polling places in Florida close at 21h Brasília time. Thirty-seven states and the capital, Washington, allow mail ballots without the voter needing to give a reason, and states with heavy mail voting can take several business days to finish counting.
Keep reading: Donald Trump cancels Pentagon livestream of Nidal Malik Hasan execution
- Redrawn districts: Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio and Tennessee, with maps changed by the governing party.
- Court order: a court in Utah required the creation of a competitive district in Salt Lake City.
