NBA proposes 3-2-1 lottery to change Draft rule and avoid team tanking

The NBA officially presented a proposal for structural changes to the new talent recruitment lottery system. The project, internally named “3-2-1 Lottery”, aims to discourage “tanking”, a strategy where franchises deliberately lose matches to guarantee better positions in the Draft. The change focuses on redistributing the first-choice draw probabilities among teams that do not advance to the playoffs.

The plan changes the historical logic of favoring the worst regular season campaigns with the greatest chances of success in the draw. If approved, the measure will come into force for the 2026 selection cycle. The league’s board of directors, made up of the owners of the 30 franchises, must vote on the final text on May 28th.

Entenda how the 3-2-1 ball system works

The new configuration expands the universe of participants in the first pick draw from 14 to 16 teams. In practice, the system removes the absolute statistical favoritism of the three worst placed in the general table, giving the greatest chances of victory to the teams that were in the middle of the road.

Confira the distribution of chances proposed by the league:

• Equipes from 4th to 10th place on the list of worst campaigns: 3 dots each.
• Três worst teams of the regular season (30th, 29th and 28th): 2 dots each.
• Equipes who finish in 9th and 10th position in each conference: 2 marbles each.
• Times who lose the play-in match between 7th and 8th places: 1 marble each.

Essa architecture creates a scenario where winning games in the final stretch becomes mathematically more advantageous than accumulating defeats. The teams that occupy the middle positions of the table, which previously had minimal chances, become the favorites to inherit the number one pick.

Regras prevents high pick dominance for consecutive years

Além of the change in immediate odds, the NBA proposes temporal locks to prevent the accumulation of elite talent in a single franchise. The proposal prohibits the same team from being drawn with the first choice for two years in a row. The rigor increases at the top of the table, preventing an organization from achieving positions in the top five for three consecutive seasons.

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The objective of Adam Silver, NBA commissioner, is to ensure that technical balance is maintained without the reconstruction process depending exclusively on failure on the court. Recentemente, the league has tightened enforcement against suspicious behavior. In January, Utah Jazz and Indiana Pacers received heavy financial fines due to signs of deliberate losses in the round.

Projeção odds for the 2026 Draft

Caso the council approves the measure in May, the chances of franchises for next year would already follow this new model. The impact would be immediate on the construction of squads for next season, as the protection of first-round picks in exchanges will also be limited.

Abaixo, see what the dot table would look like based on current campaigns:

• 3 balls: Utah Jazz, Sacramento Kings, Memphis Grizzlies, Dallas Mavericks, New Orleans Pelicans, Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks.
• 2 balls: Washington Wizards, Indiana Pacers, Brooklyn Nets, Golden State Warriors, Miami Heat, Los Angeles Clippers and Charlotte Hornets.
• 1 ball: Phoenix Suns and Orlando Magic (considering hypothetical defeats in the play-in).

Historicamente, the NBA has been trying to reform Draft since 2019, when the odds of the three worst teams were equalized at 14%. The new step is considered more radical as it inverts the probability pyramid and favors competitive teams. The debate among team owners is expected to be intense as it alters the market value of future draft picks in negotiations between franchises.