China projects strong to super strong El Niño this year with risk of floods and extreme heat By Carolina Costa
3 min read
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The El Niño climate phenomenon could reach strong to extremely strong intensity this year, as indicated by a forecast released by China. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have been steadily increasing since June, marking significant warming. On Monday, July 12, 2026, data revealed an increase of 1.6 degrees Celsius in the main monitoring area, surpassing the increase of 0.64 degrees Celsius observed in the month of May. This progressive warming is a clear sign of the intensification of El Niño, which is already showing its first effects.
Chinese climate center predicts high-powered El Niño
China’s National Climate Center has projected that sea surface temperatures will continue to rise, driving the development of a strong to super-strong El Niño during the summer and autumn months. This forecast is crucial for planning in several regions, especially in the south of the country, where the climate phenomenon increases the probability of intense rain. Furthermore, heat waves and the risk of prolonged flooding in the following year are concerns that arise with the intensification of El Niño, requiring attention from authorities and the population.
Expected impacts on Chinese autumn and winter weather
Experts warn that climate patterns associated with El Niño, combined with other indicators, promise a scenario of intense rains, floods, droughts, heat waves and storms, especially during the height of summer, in July and August. When the phenomenon reaches its peak between autumn and winter, southern China will likely experience above-average amounts of rain. At the same time, much of the country will experience higher than normal temperatures, impacting daily life and economic activities.
Excessive rainfall and flood risk post-Weakening El Niño
Even after El Niño begins to weaken, during the following spring and summer, above-average rainfall is expected to persist across a wide area of China. This continuity substantially increases the risk of flooding in several river basins, including the Yangtze River, one of the largest and most important in the country. The forecast indicates that Chinese regions, in general, will experience significantly higher temperatures, with more intense and widespread heat waves.
Agricultural areas on alert and the need for preventive measures
With the imminent intensification of El Niño, several agricultural regions in China are on alert.
- Key grain-producing regions in northeast and northern China, vital to the country’s food security, must prepare for the possible impacts of excessive rainfall and flooding.
- The northwest region, which includes the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, needs to strengthen preparedness for prolonged dry periods. Hotter and drier weather conditions are expected, threatening local agriculture and water resources.
These conditions require robust planning to protect crops and ensure supplies.
Broader repercussions and the importance of climate resilience
Professor Dam Triet Manh, academic at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and rector of Nanjing University, warned of the broad repercussions of El Niño in different regions and sectors, often with a certain delay. It emphasizes the need for governments and companies to strengthen their climate forecasting and early warning systems. Improving coordination between key sectors and optimizing supply chain risk management are essential measures to increase resilience to extreme weather events. Anticipation and preparation are key to mitigating the effects of a strong El Niño, the consequences of which can be felt not only locally, but in global chains that depend on China’s production and climate stability.
