Forecasts for Super El Niño in 2026 point to climate extremes in Brazil By Jeronimo Santos
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On September 1, 2026, a climate expert issued a warning about the approaching “Super El Niño”, indicating that the phenomenon could generate severe droughts in the Amazon region, intense heat waves and an increased risk of tornadoes in several areas of Brazil. The alert directs attention to a period of great environmental and social challenges.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern characterized by the abnormal warming of the waters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. This change in the surface temperature of the ocean significantly interferes with global atmospheric circulation patterns, directly affecting rainfall and temperature regimes in several parts of the planet, including Brazil.
Amazon must face prolonged drought and extreme heat
In relation to the Amazon, the projection is for a substantial decrease in rainfall, resulting in prolonged dry periods. This scenario intensifies concerns about the navigability of rivers and the subsistence of riverside communities, in addition to increasing the risk of forest fires and threatening the rich biodiversity of the forest.
Warnings for heat waves and the risk of tornadoes in the country
In other parts of Brazil, the situation will be different. Areas such as the Midwest and portions of the Southeast may experience very strong and persistent heat waves. In the south of Brazil, the forecast is for more intense weather events, including storms and an increased likelihood of tornadoes, which requires increased attention from civil defenses and the local population.
The last event considered a “Super El Niño” of great intensity was recorded between 1997 and 1998, leaving a trail of significant impacts, with extreme droughts in some regions and floods in other parts of the planet. The 2026 phenomenon could repeat or even surpass this magnitude.
This “Super El Niño” classification is reserved for situations where warming of the waters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean far exceeds normal patterns, signaling a broader and more severe global impact. This differentiates it from El Niño events of moderate or weak intensity.
Given climate projections for 2026, authorities and the population are advised to prepare for the effects of the phenomenon. It is essential to adopt contingency measures, planning to mitigate possible damages and adaptation strategies to expected climate changes.
